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Hornswaggle is an alternate spelling of hornswoggle, an archaic word that means to bamboozle or hoodwink. I take my pronunciation from the late Harvey Korman in "Blazing Saddles" -- "I want rustlers, cutthroats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, conmen, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswagglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass kickers, shit kickers and Methodists!" |
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Wednesday, February 18, 2004Okay Eagles fans here it is:The best durned predraft wide receiver breakdown on the innernet Part 1: The Preamble The fact that the NFC came back from 38-13 to win the Pro Bowl 55-52 in what was, shockingly, an entertaining game, has to be encouraging for Eagles' fans, in that Eagles coach Andy Reid, who coached the NFC squad along with his staff, avoided further imprinting "loser" status on his forehead. The play of Troy Vincent, who looked old and vulnerable, as contrasted with Redskins' unrestricted free agent corner Champ Bailey, who played extremely well, made it clear that there is no chance the Eagles will resign him. Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid had plenty of time to pow-wow during this last week in Hawaii. If the Eagles don't sign him, it won't be for a lack of the chance to get to know one another and chew it over. The outstanding play of Champ Bailey raises an interesting question. If the Eagles are going to spend major free agent money on one player this offseason, that cash has to be lavished upon someone at one of the following three positions: wide receiver, defensive line, cornerback. The Eagles have needs at linebacker but typically that's a position where a team can secure a good player without paying as much. If the Eagles went after Bailey and secured a shut-down corner who will be dominant for years to come, then their number one priority in the draft would have to be wide receiver. If the Eagles get a top receiver in free agency, then they can afford to spend that first round pick on a defender and wait until the second or third round to draft a receiver. Part 2: The Free Agents The three top receivers available through free agency, listed in order of ability, are Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, and Darrell Jackson. Though it is possible that the Eagles will take Owens, which is a very logical choice, given the team's needs, chances are against his signing, given Reid's tendencies as a personnel manager. Steve Smith ought to have been in the Pro Bowl this year over Terrell Owens, who had a subpar season, but any doubts about his stardom were removed by his performance in the playoffs. He's a restricted free agent however, so the Eagles would have to make him an offer the Panthers couldn't match, which is unlikely. Darrell Jackson is a very good player, who would be an upgrade over the current Eagles receivers and whom the Eagles could sign for a significantly smaller chunk of money than Owens will command on the open market. Even if the Eagles sign Jackson, it would be wise of them to invest a pick on a receiver in the first two or three rounds. Owens, Smith and Jackson are the only proven number one receivers on the free agent market. Here are the other notables (from sportsdialogue.com), ranked in order of their best years of production, in other words: Who has done the most in this league. Marcus Robinson, Baltimore Ravens UFA (unrestricted free agent) - Had 80+ catches, 1000+ yards in second season Tai Streets, San Francisco 49ers UFA Dennis Northcutt, Cleveland Browns UFA Kevin Dyson, Carolina Panthers UFA Dez White, Chicago Bears UFA Drew Bennett, Tennessee Titans RFA (restricted free agent) Justin McCareins, Tennessee Titans RFA Now let's rank them in order of projected future production: Justin McCareins: Big, fast and young. Fits Eagles' needs. Tai Streets: Has been productive. You have to think Niners will make him an offer. Drew Bennett: Big target with soft hands and body control (as evidenced in AFC Championship game) Marcus Robinson: Injury problems and age make him a risk. Dez White: Only two passes for more than 40 yards in four year career. Dennis Northcutt: Small possession receiver. Kevin Dyson: Scored the touchdown in Music City Miracle. Did he even dress for Panthers in Super Bowl? The problem with this list is that Bennett and McCareins, who best fit what the Eagles are looking for, are both restricted free agents. This article indicates maybe the Eagles could pry McCareins away from the cap-strapped Titans. It also makes it seem the Birds would never go after Owens. Part 3: Draft History Before moving on to this year's draft, let's look at the past five drafts and see what they tell us about the likelihood of drafting a good receiver. I have included every receiver taken in the first three rounds and then selected/notable receivers from later rounds. Each player gets a variation on the following ratings: Undervalued (ie they were taken too low), Overvalued (they were taken too high), Bust (they flopped) Steal (they far exceeded predraft value) and Just About Right (they've justified their selection). [This section UPDATED on 4/22/05] It's hard to judge the last two drafts, since so little time has elapsed. In the case of the 2003 draft, I marked some of the players "Jury still out." 1999 Draft Round One: 6) Torry Holt - Just about right, undervalued even. Future Hall of famer. 8) David Boston - Overvalued, injuries, attitude problems, and his desire to look like Arnold Schwarzenegger. 13) Troy Edwards - Major bust. Round Two: 32) Kevin Johnson - Overvalued, given lack of athleticism. Cut by Browns in '03. 53) Peerless Price - Undervalued. Round Three: 71) D'wayne Bates - Just about right. 78) Marty Booker - Undervalued. 82) Karsten Bailey - Overvalued. 93) Travis McGriff - Overvalued. Round Four (selected): Dameane Douglas - Just about right. Good special teams player. Brandon Stokely - Undervalued. Round Six (selected): Tai Streets - Very undervalued (due to college injury). Martay Jenkins - Very undervalued. Round Seven (selected): Donald Driver - Steal Billy Miller - Very undervalued (switched to Tight End). 2000 Draft Round One: 4) Peter Warrick - Overvalued, given production. Has started to come around. 8) Plaxico Burress - Overvalued/Just about right. Sometimes dominant, but inconsistent. 10) Travis Taylor - Bust, relative to draft position. Another Florida debacle. 21) Sylvester Morris - Utter bust. 29) R. Jay Soward- Major bust. Round Two: 32) Dennis Northcutt - Overvalued/Just about right. 36) Todd Pinkston - Overvalued/Just about right. 47) Jerry Porter - Undervalued (was new to position). Round Three: Ron Dugans - Overvalued/Bust. Dez White - Undervalued/Just about right. Chris Cole - Just about right. Laveranues Coles - Steal of the draft. Undervalued due to size/attitude questions. Jajuan Dawson - Bust. Darrell Jackson - Undervalued/Steal. A Florida success story. Round Five (selected): Troy Walters - Slightly Undervalued. 2001 Draft Round One: 8) David Terrell - Bust, given draft position. 9) Koren Robinson - Overvalued. Inconsistent. Can't catch. 15) Rod Gardner - Overvalued. A starter, but no fireworks. 16) Santana Moss - Just about right. Play in '03 justified his value. 25) Freddie Mitchell - Overvalued, though perhaps under-utilized by coaches. 30) Reggie Wayne - Just about right. Is now what Colts wanted: Legit #2. Round Two: 33) Quincy Morgan - Overvalued. 36) Chad Johnson - Steal. Attitude questions dropped him. 41) Robert Ferguson - Just about right. 51) Chris Chambers - Undervalued. Round Three: Steve Smith - Steal of the draft. Size was probably the concern. Marvin "Snoop" Minnis - Overvalued/Bust. Flashed early then faded. Round four (selected): Justin McCareins - Very undervalued. Round Five (selected): Eddie Berlin - Just about right. Special teams value. Darnerien McCants - Undervalued. Round Seven (selected): T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Undervalued/Steal. Started well, didn't play last year. Quentin McCord - Undervalued. 2002 Draft (worst receiver draft in recent years) Round One: 13) Donte Stallworth - Overvalued. Has shown flashes. Time will tell. 19) Ashley Lelie - Bust, given inconsistency. 20) Javon Walker - Undervalued, given breakout year in 2004. Round Two: 33) Jabar Gaffney - Slightly overvalued, may develop into legit #2. 36) Josh Reed - Overvalued. Hasn't produced yet. 46) Tim Carter - Overvalued/Bust. 47) Andre Davis - Undervalued/Steal. 48) Reche Caldwell - Overvalued. 62) Antwaan Randle El* - Undervalued. 63) Antonio Bryant - Just about right. 65) Deion Branch* - Undervalued. Round Three (selected): Marquise Walker - Overvalued. Hasn't gotten on the field. Round Seven (selected): David Givens - Steal. 2003 Draft Round One: 2) Charles Rogers - Just about right. Looked great when healthy. 3) Andre Johnson - Just about right. 17) Bryant Johnson - Way overvalued. Jury still out. Round Two: 44) Taylor Jacobs - Jury still out/Bust. Didn't get on the field. 45) Bethel Johnson - Just about right. Good on special teams. 54) Anquan Boldin - Steal of the draft. 61) Tyrone Callico - Undervalued/Just about right given poor 2004. 63) Teyo Johnson - Jury still out. Tweener position-wise. Round Three: Kelley Washington - Just about right. Nate Burleson - Just about right. Kevin Curtis - Jury still out. Billy McMullen - Jury still out/Overvalued. Round Four (selected): Brandon Lloyd - Steal. Round Five (selected): Justin Gage - Undervalued. Here are the top five wide receivers taken in each of the last five drafts and where they were taken, with a percentage for the number of top-five receivers who were first-round picks. Asterisk denotes best receiver in each draft. 1999: 40 percent round one Torry Holt* 1st Round David Boston 1st Round Peerless Price 2nd Round Marty Booker 3rd Round Donald Driver 7th Round 2000: 40 percent round one Peter Warrick 1 Plaxico Burress 1 Jerry Porter 2 Laveranues Coles* 3 Darrell Jackson 3 2001: 40 percent round one Koren Robinson 1 Santana Moss 1 Chad Johnson* 2 Chris Chambers 2 Steve Smith 3 2002: 40 percent round one Donte Stallworth 1 Javon Walker 1 Andre Davis 2 Antwaan Randle El 2 Deion Branch* 2 2003: 40 percent round one Charles Rogers 1 Andre Johnson 1 Anquan Boldin* 2 Tyrone Callico 2 Brandon Lloyd 4 2004: 80 percent round one Larry Fitzgerald* 1 Roy Williams 1 Lee Evans 1 Michael Clayton 1 Keary Colbert 2 Part 4: The 2004 wide receivers 4/22/05. Okay: Below is what I wrote last year. I was wrong about a few things, right about a few. I've ranked Fitzgerald as the best receiver of the '04 class. Clayton had the best statistical year, and Williams had the most dominant and spectacular year, but Fitzgerald, given how young he is, showed that five years from now he'll be the best of the group. Here's how I saw it last year: Here's a list of the top wide receivers in this year's draft, listed in approximate order of predraft ranking: Larry Fitzgerald - Pittsburgh Roy Williams - Texas Mike Williams - USC Reggie Williams - Washington Michael Clayton - LSU Michael Jenkins - Ohio State Rashaun Woods - Oklahoma State Lee Evans - Wisconsin Devery Henderson - LSU Derrick Hamilton - Clemson Devard Darling - Washington State James Newsom - Oregon State Ernest Wilford - Virginia Tech Keary Colbert - USC There are some third-tier guys that I've left out because I just don't know who the hell they are. And I'm not that familiar with Darling and Newsom. Don't worry, I doubt they're very good. But our focus is really on the first couple rounds. Mike Williams has altered the picture favorably for the Birds, because he'll bump down the other receivers expected to go in the first and second rounds. He's a freak and the Eagles would be lucky to get him, if they trade up, but that's unlikely. He could go higher than Roy Williams and will no doubt be gone by pick 15. Fitzgerald and Roy Williams are expected to go in the top 10, so let's assume that they are out of the Eagles' reach, since the Birds would have to jump up at least twenty picks to get either player. Fitzgerald, a college sophomore, is a bound for the NFL Hall of Fame, barring catastrophic injury (knock on wood for old Larry), that's how good he is. Williams ought to be dominant in the NFL, provided he can avoid a worsening of some of the nagging injuries that apparently plagued him in college. The receivers, therefore, who will be in the range of the Eagles' first overall pick in the draft, meaning either they slide down for whatever reason or the Eagles trade up to obtain them, are Reggie Williams, Michael Clayton, Lee Evans, Rashaun Woods and Michael Jenkins. Henderson and the others are bound to be second round picks and lower. Reggie Williams has the size and the speed the Eagles are looking for. I don't see any real caveats here, except for cockiness/attitude problems. But over the last few years, guys with supposed attitude problems, like Chad Johnson and Laveranues Coles, have become Pro Bowlers. I may be utterly wrong about this, but I'm not completely sold on Michael Clayton. He has the size the Eagles are looking for and a lot of skill, but watching LSU's last couple games of the season, I don't recall him standing out as a playmaker. It could be that he's the combination of size, speed, skill and dedication that'll turn him into a perenial Pro Bowler and I just don't know it. We'll see how he pans out. Michael Jenkins, on the other hand, has made big play after big play for the Buckeyes, including a fourth down catch in overtime in the championship game against the Hurricanes two years ago. Like Reggie Williams and Michael Clayton, he's 6'4" and strong. Clayton and Jenkins may not pose as great of a vertical, down-the-field threat as Williams, so it would be wise for the Eagles, if they select either of these two players, to make a strong move in free agency as well. Rashaun Woods is the receiver I covet the most in this draft. He doesn't have the physical attributes that Williams, Clayton and Jenkins possess - he's still 6'2" 195 - but on the field he gets it done. He had more than 100 catches as a junior and last year, as a senior, he caught 7 touchdowns in one game against SMU. The problem with Woods, as far as the Eagles are concerned, is that he doesn't fit their specific need this year to increase their physicality at the wide receiver position. If the Eagles drafted Woods, it would be imperative that they a) had already gotten a big receiver in free agency b) got another receiver later on like Wilford with some size. Incidentally, the three late first round/early second round players I've coveted over the last few years have been Clinton Portis, Deshaun Foster and Josh Reed. All were selected in the 2nd round. Scouts said Portis was undersized. Foster, who in college was a dominant athlete who could run you over, juke you or beat you to the corner, was plagued by the dreaded combination of attitude questions, fumble-itis and injury questions. Reed, the only one who hasn't emerged as a big-time player yet, was a guy whose toughness I liked and whose ability to break tackles in the open field reminded me a little bit of Duce Staley. (The year that the Eagles selected defensive tackle Corey Simon, they had the sixth overall pick and I coveted Peter Warrick, who in college was the best open field runner I've ever seen outside of Barry Sanders, and Plaxico Burress, who made it look easy in college like a young Harold Carmichael. Simon has turned into a good player, but the Eagles' other starting defensive tackle, Darwin Walker, who arguably had better seasons than Simon the past two years, was an undrafted rookie free agent. Warrick hadn't lived up to expectations until this year, when, not coincidentally, a good coach, Marvin Lewis, came to town. Meanwhile, the 6'5" Burress would have made a difference this year in the playoffs for the Eagles. The Panthers' Ricky Manning Jr., at 5'9", just wouldn't have been able to cover him.) Lee Evans - 5'11" 200 - could wind up being the steal of this draft. A major injury his junior season is the reason he may fall to the second round. Devery Henderson, a track star with limited experience at the position, could also wind up being a steal, as could Ernest Wilford, a big receiver in the Muhsin Muhammad mold. I like Keary Colbert, from USC, a small guy who reminds me of Laveranues Coles. Derrick Hamilton is big and fast. The history of the last five drafts tells us that three of the top five receivers in the 2004 draft will be selected after the 1st round. The questions are: Who will be this year's later round steals? Which 1st round receivers will bust? Which later round gambles will not pay off? The bottom line for the Eagles is that, if they draft any of the receivers below Lee Evans, they would have to supplement him with a big-time free agency acquisition. If they expend their first-round pick on a receiver, they can afford to upgrade their roster spending a gazillion dollars in free agency, but they'll need to bring in someone who upgrades their physical talent just the same. .: posted by hornswaggler 3:12 PM| |
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